Investment Update

When we wrote to clients in March, markets were grappling with a dramatically different set of circumstances.

The first two months of 2026 have been unusually turbulent. Ordinarily, markets at this time of year benefit from the tail-end of the seasonal upswing, supported by improving liquidity and resilient sentiment.

After an unpredictable 2025, it always seemed likely 2026 would follow in a similar vein. And the first two weeks of 2026 have not indicated anything other than a ratcheting up of the current extraordinary geopolitical tension, most of it coming from the White House.

The UK’s Autumn Budget, delivered on 26 November 2025, arrived precisely at the moment of peak mixed global signals.

In our note this month, we wanted to write to you regarding the well-documented slowdown in the US economy, the potential Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble and how we are responding to these fears in client portfolios.

Writing about financial services, whether it be fiscal or financial planning updates, or more far-reaching ‘macro’ analyses, has often been tied to a timetable.

In our last note to you we
questioned whether, just over halfway
through the Trump
administration’s 90-day tariff
negotiation period, we were in
the eye of the tariff storm?

Following the last couple of months’ notes, our May note has a more positive tenor. US tariff discussions have begun and appear significantly less disastrous than ‘Liberation Day’ suggested.

The last week’s equity market retracements have been widely reported on by global media outlets. After a volatile March during which the Trump administration finalised

In February, global equity markets continued to diverge, with UK and European markets climbing (FTSE100 +1.6% and Eurostoxx 50 +3.8%) and Japanese markets falling